The Library

Research

Papers, models, and ideas worth knowing — each with a strategy takeaway and a link to the source.

1. № 01

   Player Evaluation

   The 3-cone drill: signal or noise?

   The 3-cone measures agility, change of direction, and body control. It carries some signal, but it is weak on its own as a predictor of long-term NFL success.

   Why it matters

   Combine drills can shape draft interest and team workouts, but treating any single number as destiny overweights a narrow test.

   Read explainerSource ↗
2. № 02

   Player Evaluation

   EPA, win probability, and nflWAR

   Expected points and win probability give every play a value. Turning those values into a clean player-level WAR is harder in football than in baseball.

   Why it matters

   Football outcomes are deeply shared across teammates, so isolating individual contribution requires careful modeling.

   Read explainerSource ↗