The Library
Papers, models, and ideas worth knowing — each with a strategy takeaway and a link to the source.
3 entries
Coaches historically punted and kicked field goals more often than expected value suggests is optimal.
Why it matters
Risk aversion and career incentives can pull coaches away from the choice that maximizes points and win probability.
Fourth-down choices involve uncertainty, risk tolerance, game state, and institutional pressure — not only an expected-value table.
Why it matters
Two coaches can be acting rationally on the same play if their utility functions, model uncertainty, and time-and-score situations differ.
Two-point decisions hinge on expected value, win probability, the post-2015 extra-point environment, and specific score states like down 14.
Why it matters
Going for two is one of the cleanest spots where a clear rule beats gut feel — when used in the right situations.